The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee announced its April decision today. As expected by all 62 economists surveyed by Reuters, the base rate was held at 3.75%.

The headline is almost irrelevant. Every informed observer knew this was coming. The decision that matters is not today's it is the one in June, and the one after that, and what the language used this afternoon tells us about where those decisions are heading.

The vote split is the key signal

At the March meeting, the MPC voted unanimously 9-0 to hold. Today's decision arrives in a different context. CPI rose to 3.3% in March. Services inflation the component the BoE watches most closely for domestic price persistence climbed to 4.5%. The OECD forecasts UK inflation reaching 4% by Q4 2026. Oxford Economics expects inflation to peak there before falling sharply below 2% in 2027.

In this environment, some MPC members may have voted for a hike. A split vote even 7-2 or 8-1 signals that rate increases are a live possibility, not just a tail risk. If the vote was unanimous again, markets will interpret that as more comfort with the current path. Watch for the minutes, which will reveal who voted for what and why.

The language matters as much as the numbers

Governor Andrew Bailey has been careful not to signal any particular direction since the conflict began. At the IMF meeting in Washington on 14 April, he described the situation as "very, very difficult" acknowledging that higher energy costs would feed through to prices, while warning against rushing to hike. The IMF itself advised central banks not to react prematurely.

Today's language will either lean hawkish emphasising inflation risks and keeping the threat of future action alive or dovish emphasising the temporary nature of the energy shock and the drag on growth. The difference matters enormously for the mortgage market. As Finance Monthly noted ahead of today: "The Bank does not need to shock the market to change financial conditions. It only needs to sound more anxious than investors expected."

What today's decision means for mortgage rates

Mortgage rates have been broadly stable for the past two weeks. The average 2-year fixed rate sits at around 5.83%, down marginally from the peak of 5.90% on 8 April. The average 5-year fix is around 5.75%. Best-buy rates from individual lenders are lower Halifax is offering a 2-year fix at 4.55% for buyers with larger deposits, and the best variable rate from Halifax stands at 3.96%.

A clean hold with neutral language from the BoE today would give lenders confidence to begin introducing more competitive products. A split vote or hawkish language would have the opposite effect keeping swap rates elevated and preventing any meaningful easing in the fixed-rate market.

The path forward, according to Savills and Oxford Economics, is for inflation to peak around 4% in Q4 2026 and then fall sharply below 2% in 2027 at which point rate cuts become realistic. That is a 6–9 month wait from today. For mortgage holders, it means rates in the 5.5–5.8% range are likely to persist through summer before any meaningful easing.

The bottom line for borrowers

A hold today does not save you money. What changes your monthly payment is either the Bank cutting rates which is not imminent or swap rates easing, which depends on inflation data over the next two months. The June MPC meeting, armed with April and May CPI data, will be the one to watch for the first real signal of where rates go next.

Tomorrow 1 May 2026 the Renters' Rights Act comes into force. This is the biggest change to the private rented sector in England since the Housing Act 1988. It affects every landlord and every tenant in the private rented sector.

What changes from 1 May 2026:

Section 21 is abolished. From today, landlords can no longer serve a "no fault" eviction notice. Any Section 21 notice served before today remains valid, but legal proceedings must begin before 31 July 2026 or the notice expires. From 1 May onwards, landlords must use Section 8 grounds legally specified reasons to recover their property. This requires proving a ground (rent arrears, property damage, landlord wanting to sell etc.) and going through the courts.

All tenancies become periodic. Every Assured Shorthold Tenancy automatically converts to an Assured Periodic Tenancy a rolling monthly agreement with no fixed end date. There are no more fixed-term contracts in the private rented sector.

Rent increases limited to once per year. Landlords can only raise rent via a formal Section 13 notice, once in any 12-month period. Tenants who receive a notice they believe is above market rate can challenge it at the First-tier Tribunal.

No blanket bans on pets or benefit recipients. Landlords cannot advertise properties with blanket restrictions on pets or tenants who receive housing benefit or Universal Credit. Reasonable refusals are still permitted but blanket bans are not.

No more than one month's rent in advance. Landlords cannot demand more than one month's rent before a tenancy begins.

The information sheet deadline: The government's official Renters' Rights Act Information Sheet must be issued to every named tenant by 31 May 2026. Failure carries a fine of up to £7,000. It must be sent as a printed copy or PDF email attachment not a link.

What this means for the wider market

The Act accelerates the landlord exit trend we have tracked since Edition 2. Research firm Pegasus Insight found that 75% of landlords are now aware of the Act meaning 25% of the estimated 2.85 million private landlords in England may be caught unprepared. Many of those who have been sitting on the fence about selling will now make a decision. Former rental properties entering the sales market may represent opportunities for buyers particularly in areas like the North East where rental stock is tight and prices are attractive.

For tenants, the Act gives more security of tenure. But it does not solve the supply problem. Rental supply nationally remains well below pre-pandemic levels. With landlords continuing to exit and private credit constraints limiting new development supply, rents will remain under upward pressure through 2026.

The private credit connection

The BoE's system-wide stress test of major private credit players Blackstone, Apollo, KKR and others is ongoing, with results expected later this year. CRE default rates remain above 20%. Development finance remains tight. The Renters' Rights Act adds another layer of regulatory uncertainty for property-backed private credit. We continue to monitor this closely every edition.

What's happening: The gilt market has been remarkably stable this week ahead of the BoE decision. The 10-year yield held at around 4.72% — unchanged from last week. Mortgage rates are similarly flat. This is a market in a holding pattern, waiting for today's decision and language before making its next move.

The BoE decision effect: A clean hold with neutral language → gilt yields may ease slightly, giving lenders room to trim fixed rates. A hawkish tone or split vote → yields rise, mortgage rates follow within days.

Upcoming data: March 2026 UK HPI (Land Registry) publishes on 20 May — the first data to fully capture the conflict's impact on completed sale prices. Watch closely.

Data: HOA/Moneyfacts/Rightmove/Leeds Building Society, 29 April 2026

This week's Zoopla April House Price Index is the most data-rich regional picture we have had since launch and the divergence between North and South has never been more clearly defined.

The national picture: UK average house price: £271,500 up 1.3% (£3,500) over the past year. Homes are taking just one day longer to sell than a year ago. 4% fewer homes have been listed recently as some sellers hold back. The overall market is slow but not stalling.

The North: Every city in Zoopla's index recording annual growth above 3% is in the North of England. The fastest-growing markets are Burnley (+5.3%), Blackburn (+5.2%), Rochdale (+5.0%), Liverpool (+4.5%), and Barnsley (+4.3%). These markets are moving fast buyers have less time to decide, and well-priced homes are selling quickly.

Northern Ireland is the UK's strongest market at +9.5% annually in Q1 2026 the highest in the UK by a significant margin. Scotland's asking prices rose 3.7% to an average of £208,122 in April.

The South: Every city in Zoopla's index recording price falls is in southern England. Hastings is down 2.6%, Worthing down 2.0%, Bournemouth and Cambridge down 1.2%, Brighton down 1.1%. London and the South East are both at -0.2% annually.

In London specifically, the impact is most visible in outer postcodes where first-time buyers are concentrated. Harrow has the longest sell time of any London market at 54 days up from 33 days a year ago, a 65% increase. South East London is up 34% to 43 days.

Why the divide is structural, not cyclical

The north-south divergence is not simply a reflection of the current mortgage rate environment. It reflects a fundamental rebalancing driven by:

Affordability: Northern markets offer price-to-earnings ratios of 4–6x versus 8–10x in London and the South East. At any given mortgage rate, northern buyers face materially lower monthly payments.

Stamp duty: Zoopla highlights that 4 in 5 first-time buyers in London pay stamp duty equivalent to 3% of purchase price. Outside London, fewer than 1 in 10 first-time buyers pay stamp duty at all and at less than 1% of purchase price.

Remote work: Hybrid working continues to support demand for more space at lower prices. Northern cities with good rail connectivity Leeds, Manchester, Liverpool continue to attract buyers who no longer need to commute five days a week.

What this means for buyers and investors:

Northern markets offer the best combination of capital growth momentum, affordability, and rental yield of any region in England right now. In this rate environment, the lower absolute purchase prices mean the monthly cost of ownership is manageable in a way it simply is not in the South East. The data supports what we have been saying since Edition 1: the north-south growth divergence is the defining story of the UK property market in 2026.

Next edition: Post-BoE deep dive — what June's meeting means and the 20 May HPI preview

If you're on a fixed rate with 6+ months remaining: Do nothing today. Watch the June meeting. If the vote today was split or the language was hawkish, prepare to act before June's decision.

If you're on an SVR: Act now. The average SVR is ~8%. Even at today's average 2-year fix of 5.83%, switching saves you around £200/month on a £200,000 mortgage. The BoE holding rates does not lower your SVR. Only switching does.

If your deal expires in the next 3 months: Lock in a rate this week. Mortgage offers are typically valid for 3–6 months. You can often switch to a lower rate if one becomes available before completion but you cannot go back in time if rates rise.

If you're a first-time buyer: Zoopla's data shows you are one of the most resilient buyer groups down only 6–7% year-on-year. Average earnings up 3.9% annually. Asking prices down 0.9% year-on-year. The FCA's revised loan-to-income flexibility means you may be able to borrow more than you expect. Speak to a whole-of-market broker before making assumptions.

Send your questions to [email protected]

This week: "Should I fix for 2 years or 5 years right now?"

Our answer: This is the most asked question in the mortgage market right now and there is no single right answer but here is the honest framework.

The case for a 2-year fix: If Oxford Economics and Savills are right that inflation peaks around 4% in Q4 2026 and falls sharply in 2027, then rate cuts could begin in H1 2027. A 2-year fix taken today would expire roughly in May 2028 potentially into a lower rate environment. You pay slightly more now (5.83% vs 5.75% on the 5-year) but gain the flexibility to remortgage sooner.

The case for a 5-year fix: Certainty. Five years of knowing exactly what you pay. If the conflict escalates, if inflation proves stickier than forecast, or if the BoE is forced to hike, you are completely insulated. The gap between 2-year and 5-year averages is currently only 8 basis points historically very narrow.

The honest assessment: the narrow spread between 2 and 5-year rates today means you are paying very little for the extra certainty of a 5-year fix. For most households who value payment stability, the 5-year fix makes sense at current spreads. For buyers who are confident in the 2027 rate cut scenario and want flexibility, the 2-year is reasonable.

What does not make sense is staying on an SVR at ~8% waiting for "clarity." Clarity is not coming only data, one month at a time.

Educational purposes only not financial advice. Always consult an FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

1. Zoopla: Buyer Demand Rebounds After Easter — But Market is Two-Speed Zoopla's April HPI confirms buyer demand has rebounded after the Easter break, but conditions vary sharply by region. In northern cities, well-priced homes are moving quickly with buyers having little time to negotiate. In London and the outer South East, buyers have more choice than at any point in a decade the number of homes for sale is at an 11-year seasonal high. For sellers, this means pricing correctly from day one is more important than ever. Homes that launch overpriced are sitting for weeks or months, then reducing often by more than they would have lost by pricing accurately at launch. Source: Zoopla House Price Index, April 2026

2. 74% of Britons Say It's Too Expensive to Move — Market at Standstill A new survey by the HomeOwners Alliance finds that 74% of UK homeowners say it is too expensive to move citing high stamp duty, moving costs, and mortgage rates as the main barriers. The research suggests the UK housing market is suffering from a structural liquidity problem: people who want to move cannot afford to, suppressing the transaction volumes needed to keep the market functioning efficiently. Fewer transactions mean less price discovery, less stamp duty revenue for the government, and less economic activity tied to home moves (removals, renovations, new furniture). Source: HomeOwners Alliance, 27 April 2026

3. Northern Ireland Leads the UK at +9.5% Annual Growth Northern Ireland recorded annual house price growth of 9.5% in Q1 2026 the strongest of any UK region by a significant margin. The average property price in Northern Ireland is now well below the UK average, making it the most affordable of the four nations. Affordability-driven demand, a tight supply of homes for sale, and growing interest from buyers relocating from Great Britain are the main drivers. For investors, yields in Belfast remain among the highest in the UK though the additional complexity of purchasing as a non-resident is worth factoring in. Source: deVere Group / Land Registry NI, April 2026

The base rate held at 3.75% today. But your mortgage rate depends on your product, your lender, and your deal expiry not just the headline number. Use our free tool to see exactly what you're paying now, what you'd pay at today's best rates, and what a further +0.5% rise would cost you.

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UK Property Pulse sends every Thursday at 7:30am. Subscribe: ukpropertypulse.co.uk/subscribe Contact: [email protected] UK Property Pulse is not authorised or regulated by the FCA. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker before making mortgage decisions.

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