This morning the ONS released the UK's inflation figures for March 2026 the first full month since the Iran conflict began on 28 February. The headline number is 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February. It is not a shock. But it is significant, and it matters directly for your mortgage.

The detail behind the number tells the story of the conflict's impact in the clearest terms yet. Motor fuels made the largest single upward contribution to the monthly rise. Petrol prices rose 8.6 pence per litre between February and March. Diesel rose an even sharper 17.6 pence per litre. Transport costs overall jumped 4.7% year-on-year the fastest pace since December 2022. Heating oil prices surged 95.3% annually, the highest since September 2022.

This is exactly the inflationary transmission mechanism UK Property Pulse has been tracking since Edition 2. The Strait of Hormuz closure in early March disrupted oil and gas supplies. Those disruptions fed into petrol forecourts and energy bills within weeks. The March CPI data is the first official confirmation of that feed-through.

What it means for 30 April

The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee meets on 30 April one week from today. All 62 economists surveyed by Reuters this week expect a hold at 3.75%. That consensus is clear. The question is not whether they hold, they will. But what language Governor Andrew Bailey uses, and what the vote split reveals about the direction of travel.

The BoE's own March minutes forecast CPI at 3–3.5% through Q2 and Q3 2026. Today's 3.3% figure is exactly in that range but the trajectory is upward, not downward. The OECD this week cut its UK GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to just 0.7% the largest downgrade of any G20 advanced economy while simultaneously forecasting UK inflation rising to 4% by autumn.

That combination slowing growth and rising inflation is the stagflation scenario the BoE most wants to avoid. Oxford Economics said this week they expect the Bank to hold rates at 3.75% for the rest of 2026 and "well into 2027." The National Institute of Economic and Social Research warned that if energy costs remain elevated for a year, rates could climb to 4.5%.

The mortgage market this week

The average 2-year fixed rate sits at 5.83% as of today according to Moneyfacts marginally below last week's 5.84%. The average 5-year fix is broadly stable at around 5.75%. Rightmove's broader mortgage tracker shows the average 2-year fix at 5.42% across the market, reflecting a mix of products including lower LTV deals.

The stabilisation in rates over the past two weeks is genuine the initial shock has passed. But Rightmove's mortgage expert Matt Smith was direct this week: "Financial markets are now largely pricing in further Bank of England Base Rate increases this year rather than cuts. The next moves will depend on upcoming UK inflation data and how the Bank of England responds."

Today's 3.3% CPI print does not make a cut more likely. It keeps the pressure on.

Today also brought the February 2026 Land Registry House Price Index published this morning and covering completed transactions through February, the month the Iran conflict began. This is the most authoritative house price measure, covering all sales including cash purchases.

The headline figures:

The regional picture: Yorkshire & Humber recorded the highest annual growth of any English region at 3.9%. The North East saw the highest monthly growth at 2.7%. These two regions which we covered in our regional spotlights in Editions 3 and 6 continue to outperform the national average in both price growth and transaction velocity.

London's 3.3% annual decline is the steepest since the post-Truss correction. The capital is being squeezed from multiple angles: high stamp duty costs, weaker international buyer demand, flats underperforming houses, and now rising mortgage rates hitting affordability in a market where average prices are already at £542,000.

The critical context: This data covers February the month the conflict began on the 28th. It is essentially the last pre-war snapshot. Transaction data takes 6–8 weeks from completion to register, meaning March and April completions will appear in the May and June HPI releases. The March 2026 HPI, which will begin to capture the conflict's impact on actual sale prices, is due on 20 May 2026.

That is the one to watch. The Halifax data already showed a 0.5% monthly fall in March asking-price-based data. The Land Registry confirmation of that in sold prices will be a more definitive signal.

Transactions: HMRC recorded 102,000 completed residential transactions in February 2026 (seasonally adjusted) down 5.6% year-on-year from February 2025. The month-on-month figure rose 5.6%, reflecting the seasonal bounce into spring. Context: February 2025 was boosted by buyers rushing to beat the April stamp duty deadline, making year-on-year comparisons naturally softer.

The private credit angle: Falling London prices at -3.3% annually, combined with reduced transaction volumes, adds to the pressure on private credit funds that lent against London commercial and residential property at higher valuations. CRE defaults remain above 20%. The BoE stress test is ongoing. We will continue tracking this.

What's happening: The gilt market is in a holding pattern ahead of next Thursday's BoE decision. The 10-year yield has edged down slightly from last week's 4.77% to around 4.72% a modest easing. Mortgage rates are similarly stable, with the 2-year fix essentially flat week-on-week.

The inflation read-across: Today's 3.3% CPI print above the BoE's own 3–3.5% forecast range for Q2/Q3 keeps upward pressure on rates. Services inflation rose to 4.5% the component the BoE watches most closely for domestic price persistence. This is not encouraging.

Next Thursday 30 April: Hold widely expected. Watch the vote split and the language. Any hint of a hike path would reprice the mortgage market sharply upward.

Data: Moneyfacts/Rightmove/ONS/Land Registry, 22 April 2026

Today's Land Registry release provides the most authoritative confirmation yet of what we covered in Edition 6: the North East is leading England in monthly house price growth.

The February data shows the North East recorded the highest monthly growth of any English region at 2.7% — above the national average of 0.1%. Annual growth across the North East stands at 2.7% in the Land Registry data, broadly consistent with the Halifax figure of 5.0% we cited last week (the difference reflects methodology and timing).

Why does this diverge from Halifax? Halifax data is based on mortgage approvals at the point of offer a leading indicator. Land Registry data covers completed transactions a lagging indicator with a 6–8 week delay. Both confirm the same direction: the North East is outperforming. The Land Registry's lower annual figure reflects older data; Halifax's higher figure captures more recent momentum.

The regional breakdown from today:

The north-south divergence that UK Property Pulse has tracked from Edition 1 is now confirmed in the most authoritative data source available. The two cheapest, fastest-growing regions in England are outperforming the two most expensive, declining ones by 5–7 percentage points on an annual basis.

What this means for buyers: For anyone considering a purchase in the North East or Yorkshire & Humber, the combination of low entry prices, high rental yields, and above-average capital growth makes the current environment even with rates at 5.83% more viable than in southern markets. The affordability buffer absorbs rate rises that would price buyers out in London or the South East.

Next edition: A deep-dive on the 30 April BoE decision and what it means for the rest of 2026

If your mortgage deal expires within 6 months: Act before Thursday 30 April. Lock in a rate this week. If the BoE holds and rates ease, you can often rebook at a lower rate before completion. If they hike or signal a hike path rates will jump immediately and your locked rate protects you.

If you're a first-time buyer: Today's data is actually encouraging. Rightmove reports that first-time buyer demand is down only 6% year-on-year more resilient than any other buyer group. Average earnings are still up 3.9% annually, while asking prices are down 0.9% year-on-year. The FCA's Loan-to-Income flexibility, introduced last year, means you may be able to borrow more than you think. Speak to a whole-of-market broker this week.

If you're a seller: Pricing is everything in this market. Today's Land Registry data shows the market is moving but overpriced properties are sitting. One in three properties nationally has had at least one price reduction. Price realistically from day one. In the North East and Yorkshire, price assertively the data supports you. In London and the South East, price carefully.

Send your questions to [email protected]

This week: "Should I wait for the 30 April BoE decision before making a mortgage decision?"

Our answer: The BoE decision is one week away and 62 out of 62 economists surveyed by Reuters expect a hold. That is as close to a certainty as financial markets ever get. So waiting for 30 April to avoid a surprise hike is not a strategy — the market has already priced in a hold.

What Thursday's decision will tell you is the tone and direction. If Bailey signals comfort with inflation moderating and hints at a possible cut later in 2026, swap rates may ease slightly and lenders could begin trimming fixed-rate products in the weeks that follow. If the language is hawkish emphasising inflation persistence and the risk of further action the mortgage market will reprice upward.

So the question is not "should I wait for 30 April?" but "can I afford to wait another 2–4 weeks after 30 April to see how lenders respond?" If your deal expires soon, the answer is probably no. If you have 3+ months, watching how the market reacts to next Thursday before locking in is a reasonable approach.

Whatever you decide — use our tool to stress test your payments at current rates and at +0.5% above today. Know your numbers before you need them.

Educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always consult an FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

1. OECD Cuts UK Growth Forecast to 0.7% — Biggest G20 Downgrade The OECD released its updated economic outlook this week, cutting its UK GDP growth forecast for 2026 from 1.2% to just 0.7% the largest single downgrade of any G20 advanced economy. The organisation also projects UK inflation rising to around 4% this year, the second-highest in the G7 after the United States. For the property market, slower growth means softer employment, which weakens buyer confidence and reduces the pool of active purchasers. Source: OECD Economic Outlook Update, April 2026

2. Rightmove: April Asking Prices Up 0.8% to £373,971 — But Below Seasonal Average Rightmove's April House Price Index, released this week, shows asking prices rose 0.8% in April to £373,971. Rightmove notes this is consistent with February and March, but below the long-term April average a sign that sellers are being realistic. Sales agreed are just 3% below last year, suggesting committed buyers are still transacting. First-time buyer demand is down only 6% year-on-year, more resilient than any other buyer group. Source: Rightmove House Price Index, April 2026

3. Services Inflation Rises to 4.5% — The Number the BoE Watches Most Buried in today's CPI release is a number that matters more than the 3.3% headline: services inflation rose from 4.3% in February to 4.5% in March. This is the component the Bank of England watches most closely because it reflects domestic cost pressures rather than imported energy prices. The BoE cannot control oil prices but services inflation signals whether the energy shock is feeding into wages and domestic pricing behaviour. A rising services figure makes the case for holding — or hiking — significantly stronger. Source: ONS Consumer Price Inflation, March 2026

Whether the BoE holds, signals a hike, or surprises with a cut you need to know what each scenario means for your monthly payments before it happens. Our free tool lets you model your payments at current rates, and stress test at +0.25% and +0.50% so nothing catches you off guard next Thursday.

→ tools.ukpropertypulse.co.uk

Free. No sign-up. Educational purposes only — not financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

UK Property Pulse sends every Thursday at 7:30am. Subscribe: ukpropertypulse.co.uk/subscribe Contact: [email protected] UK Property Pulse is not authorised or regulated by the FCA. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker before making mortgage decisions.

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