Halifax released its May 2026 House Price Index this morning. The average UK house price now stands at £298,806, down from £299,251 in April and down from the pre-conflict level of £301,151 in February. That is a fall of approximately £2,345 from peak to today across just three months.

The monthly fall of 0.1% in May follows an identical 0.1% fall in April. Two consecutive monthly falls is a signal, not a blip. But the annual picture tells a different story. Annual growth has actually edged up slightly from 0.4% in April to 0.5% in May, reflecting favourable base comparisons against a weaker May 2025. So the market is falling month-on-month but rising year-on-year, which sounds contradictory until you understand the timing.

What Amanda Bryden said this morning

Halifax head of mortgages Amanda Bryden was direct in this morning's release: "Property price trends continue to reflect the uncertainty linked to developments in the Middle East. Despite recent cuts to mortgage rates, higher inflation expectations have kept borrowing costs above the level seen at the start of the year, continuing to stretch affordability for many buyers and temper demand."

She added: "Most buyers are taking their time to try to ensure as far as possible they have found the right place and are not overpaying. As a result, prices are wobbling a bit and transactions are taking longer to complete, which is increasing fall-throughs."

The phrase "increasing fall-throughs" is the most significant in that statement. A fall-through is when a sale that was agreed subsequently collapses before completion, typically because a buyer gets cold feet, a survey reveals problems, or a chain breaks. Rising fall-throughs indicate a market where buyers are nervous and willing to pull out rather than proceed at a price they are unsure about. It is a leading indicator of further price softness.

The transaction picture from HMRC

HMRC's April 2026 residential transaction data confirms a market that is moving but without momentum. Seasonally adjusted transactions totalled 101,030 in April, down 3% from March's 103,910. On a quarterly basis, the April to June 2026 period is running approximately 1% above the January to March 2026 quarter, which is a modest positive. The mortgage approvals figure of 65,945 in April, up 9% year-on-year, suggests that the pipeline of future completions is stronger than the current transaction numbers imply. Approvals today become completions in 8 to 12 weeks.

The Nationwide and Zoopla picture

Nationwide's May data, published last week, tells a similar story. Their average stands at £278,024, up 1.7% annually but down 0.6% on the month. The annual figure slowed sharply from 3% in April to 1.7% in May, the second consecutive monthly slowdown. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, noted that "some momentum has been lost."

Zoopla's April data, the most recent available from them, puts the average at £271,900, up fractionally from March. Their regional breakdown confirms the pattern UK Property Pulse has tracked since Edition 1: Belfast up 6.2%, Liverpool up 4.5%, Newcastle up 3.5%, Northern Ireland overall up 6.9%, Scotland up 3%, North West England up 3.6%. In London and the South East, prices continue to fall.

Why this edition matters more than most

The data we have today, from Halifax, Nationwide, Zoopla, and HMRC, covers the period up to April and May. The Land Registry April HPI, releasing on Wednesday, will cover completed transactions through April. This is the first Land Registry data to capture the period when mortgage rates were at their 5.90% peak. It will be the most authoritative read yet on what the conflict's worst weeks actually did to sale prices. We will cover the full results in Edition 15 and share live data on our social channels on Wednesday morning.

Then on Thursday, the Bank of England announces its June rate decision. A hold at 3.75% is widely expected. But the vote split, the language, and the MPC's updated projections will set the tone for the rest of 2026.

Twelve weeks into covering the impact of the Iran conflict on the UK economy and housing market, this is a good moment to take stock of where things actually stand.

Growth: below trend but not collapsing

The UK economy grew 0.5% in the three months to February 2026, the last confirmed quarterly figure. Independent forecasters surveyed by the Treasury are projecting 0.6% growth for 2026 as a whole, down from 1.4% forecast by the OBR in March. The OECD forecasts 0.7%. These are subdued but not recessionary numbers. The UK is growing slowly, constrained by elevated energy costs, rising unemployment, and weakened consumer confidence.

Inflation: improving but not resolved

April CPI at 2.8% was the most encouraging reading of 2026 and came in below the Bank of England's own forecast of 3.0 to 3.5% for Q2. But the BoE's central projection has inflation rising again in Q3 and Q4, toward 3.1% in Q2, 3.3% in Q3, and potentially higher in Q4, before easing back toward the 2% target over the medium term. May CPI, published in the week before next Thursday's BoE decision, will be closely watched. If it confirms the April downward trend, the case for a hold with neutral language strengthens. If it surprises upward, the probability of a hike at a later meeting rises.

Unemployment: rising and affecting buyer confidence

The unemployment rate stands at 4.9%, up from 4.4% a year ago. RICS's April residential market survey found new buyer enquiries at a net balance of -34%, an improvement from -40% in March but still deeply negative. RICS noted that "near-term sentiment indicators suggest subdued conditions are set to persist over the coming months, while the outlook for the year ahead has softened noticeably." Buyers who are uncertain about employment do not commit to six-figure purchases.

Wages: still positive but narrowing

Average wages excluding bonuses were 3.6% higher in the three months to February 2026 compared with a year before. With CPI at 2.8%, real wages remain technically positive. But the gap is narrow and uneven. Lower earners in energy-intensive sectors are seeing their real incomes squeezed despite nominal wage growth.

The private credit update

The Bank of England's system-wide exploratory scenario exercise involving Blackstone, Apollo, KKR and other major participants is ongoing. BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden's April warning of a potential private credit crunch, similar in character to the banking credit crunch of 2008 but without the systemic banking collapse, remains the most significant institutional statement on this risk. The FPC has identified private credit as one of three top stability risks alongside sovereign debt markets and AI equity valuations.

The housing market connection runs through development finance, as we have explained across multiple editions. Commercial real estate default rates remain above 20%. When private credit tightens, fewer development schemes are funded, housing supply falls, and prices face structural support even as demand weakens. This is the mechanism that makes the housing market stickier than pure demand analysis would suggest.

Interim findings from the SWES are expected during 2026. The final report publishes in early 2027. We will cover both immediately on publication.

What is happening: The gilt market has been remarkably stable over the past two weeks. The 10-year yield at ~4.75% is well below the 5.096% peak but remains significantly above the pre-conflict level of ~4.23%. Mortgage rates have correspondingly stabilised. The average 2-year fix at 5.68% is 85 basis points above where it started the year.

The Iran MOU: Still not finalised as of this morning. Brent crude sits around $96/barrel, below the $110 peak but still well above pre-conflict levels. Every week without a deal keeps energy prices elevated, keeps inflation expectations anchored above target, and keeps the BoE from signalling rate cuts.

The 18 June decision: Markets widely expect a hold at 3.75%. The vote split will be the key signal. If the April 8-1 hold becomes a 7-2 or 6-3 hold next week, with more members voting to raise, swap rates will move upward and lenders will begin repricing. If the vote shifts toward neutral or dovish territory, some modest further easing in mortgage product rates is likely over the following weeks.

Key dates this week: Land Registry April HPI at 9:30am Wednesday 17 June. BoE decision at noon Thursday 18 June. We will post live updates on X @UKPPMEDIA and Facebook.

Data: Halifax/Nationwide/Zoopla/Moneyfacts/HMRC, 11 June 2026

Zoopla's April 2026 House Price Index provides the most granular city-level picture available and confirms the north-south divergence UK Property Pulse has tracked from Edition 1.

The strongest markets (Zoopla, April 2026):

Belfast leads the UK at +6.2% annually, with Northern Ireland overall at +6.9% for Q1 2026. The combination of lower average prices, tight supply, and strong local employment in Belfast's growing tech and financial services sector continues to drive above-average growth.

Liverpool is up 4.5% annually, cementing its position as one of England's strongest performing cities. Rental demand from a large student and young professional population, combined with significant city centre regeneration investment, continues to support prices.

Newcastle is up 3.5% annually, consistent with the North East's position as the UK's most affordable major city. Average prices remain below £200,000, meaning monthly mortgage payments at any given rate are significantly lower than in southern markets.

Scotland overall is up 3% annually. Edinburgh and Glasgow continue to attract buyers relocating from London and the South East, drawn by relatively lower prices and high quality of life.

North West England is up 3.6% annually, led by Manchester, Liverpool, and Salford. Manchester in particular continues to benefit from major employer investment and a growing graduate retention rate.

The weakest markets:

London continues to record annual price falls. The Land Registry March data confirmed London at -2.1% annually. Zoopla's April data is consistent with continued softness. The South East and South West are both negative or flat year-on-year across most measures.

The rental picture from ONS:

Average UK monthly private rents increased by 3.4% in the 12 months to March 2026, down from 3.6% in February and the lowest annual rate since March 2022. This modest slowdown in rental inflation is welcome news for tenants, but rents remain significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels in most regions. The North East, where rents rose 7.6% in the year to February, remains the outlier, reflecting the acute supply shortage in Newcastle, Sunderland and Durham.

Next edition: Full Land Registry April HPI analysis and BoE June decision breakdown. This will be the most important edition of the year.

Two major data releases arrive next week that should inform any mortgage decision you are making right now. Here is how to use them practically.

The Land Registry April HPI (Wednesday 17 June)

This data covers completed transactions through April, the month when mortgage rates peaked at 5.90%. It will tell you what buyers actually paid during the worst of the crisis. If it shows sharp monthly falls, the market entered May in a weaker position than the Halifax and Nationwide data suggest. If it shows resilience, the market is proving more durable than feared.

For sellers: if the April LR data shows falls in your region, be prepared to adjust your price expectations before launching. For buyers: if it shows falls, you have a data-backed argument for offering below asking price. For anyone remortgaging: the data does not directly affect your rate, but it affects your LTV, which affects which products you can access.

The BoE June decision (Thursday 18 June)

A hold at 3.75% is widely expected. What matters is the vote split and the language. If the split is 8-1 or 9-0, markets interpret that as comfort with the current path and swap rates ease slightly, with lenders potentially trimming product rates in the following fortnight. If the split is 7-2 or 6-3 toward hiking, swap rates move upward and fixed-rate products become more expensive within days.

If you have a mortgage decision to make in the next four weeks, it is worth waiting until the afternoon of Thursday 18 June before locking in a rate. Not because the decision itself will change rates on the day, but because the vote split and language will give you a clear signal about whether rates are more likely to ease or rise over the following weeks.

Send your questions to [email protected]

This week: "Halifax says prices fell 0.1% in May. Nationwide says prices fell 0.6% in May. Which one is right?"

Our answer: Both are right. They are measuring different things.

Halifax uses data from its own mortgage approvals at the point of offer, weighted to reflect the national property mix. Nationwide uses a similar methodology from its own lending book. Neither covers cash purchases. Both apply statistical adjustments to account for the mix of properties sold each month.

The difference in May, 0.1% versus 0.6%, is partly a result of different property mixes, different customer demographics, and different regional weightings in each lender's book. Halifax has a larger share of first-time buyer lending, which has held up better in the current environment. Nationwide's book has a higher proportion of home movers, who are more cautious right now.

The most authoritative measure remains the Land Registry, which covers all transactions including cash purchases and applies a hedonic regression model to control for property mix. That releases on Wednesday. It will give you the closest thing to the true market price.

For practical decision-making, use all three indices together. If Halifax, Nationwide and Land Registry all point in the same direction, that direction is reliable. When they diverge, the direction of travel matters more than the precise number.

Educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always consult an FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

1. Halifax May HPI: Second Consecutive Monthly Fall as Fall-Throughs Rise Halifax confirmed this morning that average house prices fell 0.1% in May 2026 to £298,806, the second consecutive monthly fall of that magnitude. Annual growth remains modest at +0.5%. Head of mortgages Amanda Bryden flagged rising fall-throughs as a concern, noting that buyers are taking longer to commit and are more willing to pull out of agreed sales. Northern Ireland continues to record the UK's strongest annual growth at +7.8%, with Wales at +2.9% and Scotland at +1.6%. Source: Halifax House Price Index, June 2026

2. Nationwide May: Annual Growth Slows to 1.7% as Momentum Fades Nationwide's May House Price Index shows average prices at £278,024, with annual growth slowing to 1.7% from 3% in April. The monthly fall of 0.6% was larger than Halifax's equivalent reading, reflecting differences in the two lenders' mortgage books. Nationwide's chief economist Robert Gardner noted that "some momentum has been lost" as the Iran conflict's impact on mortgage rates and buyer confidence feeds through. The quarterly trend for April to June 2026 is running approximately 1% above January to March, a modest positive. Source: Nationwide House Price Index, June 2026

3. Land Registry April HPI and BoE Decision: This Wednesday and Thursday The two most significant data releases of 2026 arrive in consecutive days next week. The Land Registry April 2026 HPI publishes at 9:30am on Wednesday 17 June, covering transactions agreed primarily in March and April when mortgage rates hit 5.90%. The BoE rate decision follows at noon on Thursday 18 June. Together, these two releases will define the narrative for the UK housing market through the summer. We will cover both in full in Edition 15 and share live analysis on X @UKPPMEDIA and Facebook on the days of publication. Source: gov.uk HPI calendar / BoE MPC schedule

Before the Land Registry April data and the BoE rate decision land next week, make sure you know exactly where you stand. Model your current payments, what you would pay at 5.4% and at 5.0%, and how a rate rise of 0.25% would affect your monthly budget.

→ tools.ukpropertypulse.co.uk

Free. No sign-up. Educational purposes only. Not financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

UK Property Pulse sends every Thursday at 7:30am. Subscribe: ukpropertypulse.co.uk/subscribe Contact: [email protected] UK Property Pulse is not authorised or regulated by the FCA. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker before making mortgage decisions.

© UK Property Pulse 2026