📌 THIS WEEK IN BRIEF:

Chancellor John Healey delivered his first Budget on Wednesday. There was no cut or reform to stamp duty. Healey said he had chosen "to use some of the headroom established last year to absorb the impact of the Iran war", adding: "That is what a buffer is for. Use it when you need it. Rebuild it when you can."

The OBR's new forecasts set the backdrop. Growth is 1.2% this year and 1.0% next year, against the 1.6% it had pencilled in for 2027. Borrowing is 4.2% of GDP this year, falling to 1.8% by 2030/31. Inflation peaks at 3.8% in the first quarter of 2027 and averages about 3.4% across 2027. Unemployment rises to 5.1% in 2027, about 440,000 more people out of work than previously expected. The OBR's headroom against the fiscal rules is just under £15bn in 2029/30, and City AM reports a 56% chance of meeting the rules. The forecasts assume oil and gas prices fall back to pre-war levels by 2028.

Markets took it calmly. Brit Brief reported gilt yields "largely unchanged" after the statement. Aberdeen's Matthew Amis said: "The gilt market wanted dull and they got exactly that." Ebury's Matthew Ryan was blunter about what comes next: "The can has been kicked, but the road is getting shorter." Deutsche Bank's Sanjay Raja put the gap to fill in the new year at "a near £25-40bn fiscal hole".

For borrowers, the Budget did not change the next big date. Bank Rate is 3.75% and the Monetary Policy Committee meets on 5 November. A roundup published on 23 October listed Danske Bank, Nomura, UBS, Barclays, Brown Brothers Harriman and Societe Generale among those forecasting a rise at that meeting. Lloyds says markets price four rises over the coming year, which would take Bank Rate to 4.75%. That is market pricing, not a forecast, and Oxford Economics calls it excessive.

First-time buyers: Your First Home opens in Spring 2027 as a government equity loan supporting a 2.5% deposit on a new-build, with £4.7bn of Treasury funding. Household income caps are £110,000 outside London and £140,000 in London, and price caps follow local authority median prices. A First Time Buyer ISA is reported to start in April 2029, with up to £4,000 a year in contributions and a 25% government bonus. These details are as reported by The Negotiator; the Budget document itself was not available to us.

Landlords: Income tax on rental income rises by a further 2 percentage points from April 2027, on top of the rise Rachel Reeves announced. Reported new rates are 24%, 44% and 49%. Healey's wording was "income from property and savings". Re-run your net rental return after tax before you decide anything.

Homeowners above £2m: The High Value Council Tax Surcharge goes ahead for homes valued at £2m and above, with first bills in March 2028. The rates were not specified in what we read.

Remortgaging and trackers: Nothing in the Budget changes your rate. The Bank decision on 5 November matters more, and a rise would reach tracker borrowers first.

Edition 33 (22 October), we said: Your First Home terms were only reported, not confirmed, and borrowers should reserve a rate through a broker and ask how long it is held.

What happened: The Budget confirmed the 2.5% deposit, the new-build focus and the £4.7bn funding. The 20% equity loan share we mentioned was not confirmed in the sources we could read, so treat it as unverified. The 10-year gilt yield was about 5.33% on 26 October against 5.38% on 21 October, a small move. We found no newer Moneyfacts average than 16 October, so we cannot say whether the shelf-life warning played out this week.

The Budget chose not to fix the public finances now. Headroom fell from £23.6bn in March to under £15bn, and the OBR has net debt peaking around 97% of GDP in 2028/29. David Miles of the OBR said: "Getting lucky isn't a plan."

Why this reaches housing: the government's borrowing costs feed through gilt yields and swap rates into fixed mortgage pricing. A thin buffer means any shock, from oil prices to a weaker outlook, can reopen the question of tax rises or higher yields. Edition 33 noted UBS's estimate that keeping the fiscal rules could trim 10-year yields, and that breaking them could add 25 to 50 basis points. The rules were kept, and yields barely moved. That is one week of evidence, not a trend.

How private credit stress reaches your street.

On 23 October, Reuters reported that the Financial Conduct Authority had restricted six small private credit lenders over concerns about their anti-money laundering controls. The limits stop them taking on new customers and entering new lending, and in some cases stop them accepting payments from existing customers. The six are "Annex 1" firms, which are registered for anti-money laundering but not fully regulated.

The report does not say whether the six lend against property. It does say the FCA promised more scrutiny of Annex 1 firms after the February collapse of Market Financial Solutions, a UK property lender, which left creditors with a shortfall of over £1.3bn. The report does not link the six firms to that collapse.

For housing, the exposure is mainly in bridging, development and commercial property finance, not in your high street mortgage. Non-bank lenders hold around 45% of outstanding UK commercial real estate debt.

Sources: Reuters via Global Banking & Finance (23 October 2026), Bank of England.

What is happening: Trading Economics had the 10-year yield slipping below 5.4% on 22 October and around 5.33% by 26 October; its two readings for 23 and 26 October do not match exactly, so we say "about". Brit Brief reported yields largely unchanged after the Budget, even though the OBR warned higher inflation would raise government borrowing costs by £14bn a year this parliament.

Why it matters: Lenders price fixed mortgages from swap rates, which follow expected Bank Rate and gilt moves. The next test is the Bank decision on 5 November, which comes with new forecasts.

We could not find a post-Budget 30-year yield from a source we trust, so it is left out this week.

Data: Moneyfacts, ONS, Bank of England

Moneyfacts' Adam French said on 16 October that it was "far too early to declare that a sustained downward trend is beginning". Only about 25 fixed deals were priced below 5%, all at 60% loan to value or lower. The averages above are the latest we could confirm; Moneyfacts publishes weekly, so check for a newer reading.

The UK House Price Index put the average Welsh home at £216,000 in August, up 3.1% on the year, faster than 2.2% in July and well ahead of the UK's 0.9%. Prices rose 1.0% on the month before seasonal adjustment.

Terraced homes averaged £174,317 (+3.7%) and semi-detached £215,812 (+3.7%). Detached homes were £336,551 (+2.4%) and flats £130,206 (+0.9%). Sixteen of Wales's 22 local authorities saw annual rises. Denbighshire was highest at +5.2%, and Torfaen lowest at -2.8%. Monmouthshire was the most expensive at about £329,000 and Blaenau Gwent the cheapest at about £143,000.

ONS puts the average Welsh private rent at £848 in September, up 4.1%, a little faster than the UK's 3.8%.

The sales volume figures in the same release contradict each other, so we have left them out until they are checked.

Next edition: Northern Ireland.

If you let a property, the further 2 point rise in property income tax from April 2027 lowers what you keep. Take your annual rent, subtract mortgage interest, running costs and any void periods, then apply the reported 24%, 44% or 49% rate for your band. Compare the result with your current mortgage payment at a rate near 6%. Confirm the final rates and any interest relief rules on gov.uk or with an accountant before acting.

Send questions to [email protected]

This week: "Did the Budget change my mortgage?"

Not directly. The Budget contained no mortgage-specific measures and left stamp duty unchanged. The indirect route is through gilt yields, which feed swap rates and then fixed rate pricing. Yields were largely unchanged on the day, so lenders had little new reason to reprice. The bigger driver now is whether the Bank of England raises Bank Rate on 5 November, and what it signals about the path after that.

Educational only. Not financial advice. Always consult an FCA-regulated broker.

1. Unemployment forecast. The OBR expects unemployment to rise to 5.1% in 2027. (City AM, 28 October 2026)

2. Incomes squeezed. Real household disposable incomes fall 0.6% this year in the OBR's forecast. (City AM, 28 October 2026)

3. Fuel duty frozen again. Fuel duty is frozen for the 16th year in a row. (Budget key points, Newsbeep, 28 October 2026)

Model your current payments and what a further rise would mean for your monthly budget.

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Fiscus Rebus (formerly UK Property Pulse) sends every Thursday at 7:30am. Subscribe: subscribe.fiscusrebus.com | Contact: [email protected] Fiscus Rebus is not authorised or regulated by the FCA. Nothing here is financial advice. Always consult a qualified, FCA-regulated mortgage broker.

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